The greatest single danger to this government is the state of the Union. Prime ministers can survive many things, but not the break-up of the country they lead.
No. 10 has a plan to avoid this: it simply won’t allow a Scottish independence referendum this parliament. No legal referendum can take place without Westminster’s consent and it will be declined on the grounds that a generation has not elapsed since the ‘once in a generation vote’ in 2014.
This approach, however, cannot change the fact that the Union is now in even graver danger than it was during that campaign. In recent weeks, the polls have consistently shown independence ahead. Scottish Unionists are downhearted. When I asked one of the most impressive figures from 2014 how things were going, the answer came simply: ‘It’s over. The horse has bolted.’
Prime ministers can survive a lot of things, but not the break-up of the country they lead
Such pessimism might be an over-reaction to bad polls, but it is worrying how convinced some Unionists are that any second referendum would be lost.
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