The UK’s economic problems are far bigger than a ‘recession’

It was extremely optimistic to think the UK could revise its way out of recession. After the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported GDP figures for Q4 last year showing a 0.3 per cent economic contraction between October and December, a recession seemed set in stone. Today the ONS reports no revisions to the figures. But even a small revision upwards would not have been enough to shake off the label of a recession.

This remains a ‘technical recession’. Britain’s economy fell – just – on the wrong side of the line last year. Had the Q3 figures not been revised downwards in December last year – from no growth to a contraction of 0.1 per cent – the UK would have dodged the definition of recession (two consecutive quarters of negative growth). 

After today’s update, ministers remain in the same position today as they were yesterday: burdened with the badge of recession, quietly optimistic that the picture will soon improve.