The triumph of tradition

British politics froze for about 12 years after 16 September 1992, otherwise known as Black Wednesday. Real movement between the two main parties was imperceptible. The Conservative party, dominant for most of the 20th century, embarked on a long period of semi-collapse, commanding the support of no more than one third of voters, perhaps rather less. New Labour, in sharp contrast, could rely on the goodwill of over 40 per cent of the electorate. The Liberal Democrats were the only real movers. They re-emerged as a healthy third party, steadily gaining ground at the expense of the Conservatives and, towards the 2005 general election, of New Labour.

There were a number of reasons for this unusual political stasis. The first was an economic boom of unprecedented durability. This in turn was the product of two factors, both insufficiently understood. Domestically, the courageous supply side reforms inaugurated by Margaret Thatcher’s remarkable government in the 1980s, in defiance of mainstream opinion, had turned the United Kingdom into the most dynamic economy in Western Europe.