How Boris can cling on

What is happening in the UK right now is similar to the later Berlusconi years, the opera buffa phase of Italian politics with bunga-bunga parties, and worse. Readers may remember Berlusconi’s infamous put-down of recession warnings in 2009, when he remarked that he was not worried because the restaurants were still full. I remember having a conversation with a senior minister in his cabinet at the time, who said it was absolutely clear that Berlusconi had to go, and it was just a matter of time. It took another three years. And it was the euro crisis that did it, an event still unforeseen in 2008.

History never quite repeats itself. But the events of the last few days in the UK bring up some memories of that episode. What the Berlusconi saga tells us is that you can cling on to power for a surprisingly long time against the odds, if your opponents have no alternative positive strategy of their own.