The Tory leadership race is wide open

Westminster is strangely quiet today. Most MPs are back in their constituencies. But the place will feel very different next week when there’ll probably be two rounds of voting in a Tory leadership contest. The speed of the contest – the 1922 executive is likely to propose having the parliamentary rounds wrapped up by 21 July – will mean that momentum is all important. Whoever is seen to outperform in round one will get a big boost.

Another key factor will be transferability, how able are candidates to pick up support from others as the contest goes on. No one is going to be close to 120 votes, what you need to guarantee making it through to the members’ round, on the first ballot. The field remains very open. But the shape of the race will start to become clearer over the weekend.