The cost of living – not Covid – could bring Boris down

Two and a half years into his premiership, Boris Johnson has enjoyed no more than a month of that time unencumbered either by Brexit negotiations or the public health emergency. Once Britain is through the worst of the Omicron wave, it would be understandable if the Prime Minister wanted to pursue some kind of political vision. The danger is that, as normality returns, his premiership will be further imperilled by the cost of living.

An economic crisis is expected to hit households in April. In that month, National Insurance contributions (NICs) will go up by 1.25 per cent, a direct violation of Johnson’s manifesto pledge to protect voters from tax rises. The price cap on energy bills will also be raised, possibly doubling some customers’ costs as they come off fixed rates. On top of that, inflation is already exceeding 5 per cent and looks set to rise further to 6 or 7 per cent — a level never before experienced by most working-age adults. While the jobs market seems steady and wages, notionally, have been rising fast, a fresh generation is about to learn that wage rises are of little help when prices are rising faster.

If the government has a political strategy to deal with the fallout, it is sadly not evident. Meanwhile, the leader of the opposition, Keir Starmer, has for once shown himself to have a finger on the nation’s pulse by opposing the rise in National Insurance. This might be a little hypocritical given that it was the last Labour government which jacked up NICs to their current level as a proxy for increasing income taxes, in the hope that taxpayers might notice it less. But it will be futile for the Tories to try to make that point.

The Tories were right first time, when they condemned Gordon Brown for raising what they then called the ‘jobs tax’ and promised that, if elected, they would ‘kill the jobs tax’.