The Tories’ summer of discontent

Mid-term unpopularity is a given in British politics. Veterans from the Thatcher era like to joke that a government that isn’t behind at the halfway point of its term isn’t doing its job properly. But the worry for the Tories is that their current unpopularity is different.

The usual explanation for the mid-term blues is that a prime minister seeks to get the politically difficult stuff out of the way as soon as possible after an election victory. The government loses support initially before – if everything goes to plan – reaping the rewards of its tough decisions in time for the next general election. Straight after the Tories came into office in 2010, George Osborne hiked taxes and cut spending in his Budget. In 2012, he was booed at the Olympic Stadium and the Tories were consistently behind in the polls. But by 2015, real incomes were going up and the Tories won a surprise majority.

Nevertheless, because of Covid and the Johnson government’s lack of a clear governing prospectus, the Tories are not following the usual arc of the parliament. Rather than raising taxes right at the beginning, they have only just this month increased National Insurance. The last spending settlement, which included increases for all departments, is going to become less generous as this parliament goes on – and polling day nears – because of inflation.

Rishi Sunak’s announcement in the spring statement of a cut in income tax for 2024, just before the likely date of the next general election, is an attempt to make people feel a bit better off before polling day. But it remains to be seen whether the cut will have been in place long enough for people to really feel it before the campaign gets under way.