Everyone knew that the Conservatives were going to take a pasting in the local elections. Aside from deserving a particular kicking for the horror show of 2022, with its runaway inflation and two prime ministerial defenestrations, this is just what happens to long-serving governments deep into parliaments.
So the question foremost in the minds of Conservative MPs – who naturally will be regretful about losing hundreds of conscientious councillors – is whether the English public have sent a message that they have already decided to get behind Keir Starmer and Labour at the next general election. In other words, is it over?
The government’s protracted and out-of-control tailspin of last year has been arrested
There is no such message discernible from the first wave of results. Labour took control in two of its target councils – the Red Wall citadel of Stoke-on-Trent and Plymouth. But in Stoke, the gains made by Starmer’s party were predominantly against independent candidates with the Tories holding their number of councillors at 14.
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