James Forsyth reviews the week in politics
When a party loses an election, recriminations follow. But when it wins, an argument that is often as vicious breaks out over why it triumphed. This debate matters because, as Winston Smith knew, he who controls the past controls the future. The Tory party is preparing for such an argument right now. Those on the right are gearing up to say that it was the tax cut wot won it; while the so-called modernisers counter that the tax cut was illusory — and that the victory is a result of abandoning the old Tory tunes.
That the Tories are preparing for this argument shows that they now expect to win. The jitters of a fortnight ago have been replaced by a quiet confidence that the party will gain an overall majority. Number-crunchers at Conservative Campaign Headquarters now believe that the party needs to be only five points ahead in the polls to secure outright victory — and recent polls suggests the Tories are eight or nine points ahead. Previously, the target for victory was put at seven percentage points. But the Tory vote in the battleground seats held up better than expected when their poll lead dipped. This, the Tories believe, has made them more resilient to the yo-yoing of the polls.
The cause of the latest upswing is linked, by those on the right of the party, to the National Insurance tax cut. They argue that every time the leadership offers a tax cut — now, and at conference 2007, with the promise to take every estate worth less than a million pounds out of inheritance tax — the public respond well. As one right-wing member of the shadow Cabinet jokes, ‘a little Conservatism goes a long way’.
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