The Tories can control the future by controlling their past

James Forsyth reviews the week in politics

When a party loses an election, recriminations follow. But when it wins, an argument that is often as vicious breaks out over why it triumphed. This debate matters because, as Winston Smith knew, he who controls the past controls the future. The Tory party is preparing for such an argument right now. Those on the right are gearing up to say that it was the tax cut wot won it; while the so-called modernisers counter that the tax cut was illusory — and that the victory is a result of abandoning the old Tory tunes.

That the Tories are preparing for this argument shows that they now expect to win. The jitters of a fortnight ago have been replaced by a quiet confidence that the party will gain an overall majority. Number-crunchers at Conservative Campaign Headquarters now believe that the party needs to be only five points ahead in the polls to secure outright victory — and recent polls suggests the Tories are eight or nine points ahead.