Between the revolution and the firing squad, there is always time for a bottle of champagne. In this case, it was Sky TV’s champagne at its summer party on Monday evening. Though a lot of Tory MPs turned up, I did not find one who was cheerful about his party’s prospects. There is a difference between the current outbreak of Tory malaise and its predecessors. On those occasions, even while raging and bemoaning, most Tory MPs thought that there was a solution: different policies or a fresh leader. Now, as one shadow minister put it, there are no new levers to pull.
Tory MPs would find all this easier if they felt that they were losing to a worthy opponent, but almost all of them are sincere in their belief that this is a bad government. They can cite plenty of support for that thesis. The Butler report could be subtitled ‘How not to run a government’. Evidence mounts as to the waste of money in almost every department of state. Last week, Gordon Brown boasted that he was providing more money for defence. This week, Geoff Hoon announced that there would be less defence. ‘Spend more, deliver less’; that should be the Blair government’s slogan.
Yet none of this seems to have much effect on public opinion. According to the poll evidence, the voters do not think well of the government. They also believe that Mr Blair lies to them. But they do not really mind. That has been Tony Blair’s greatest achievement. He has presided over a marked increase in public cynicism about politics without suffering significant damage to his own electoral prospects. As people lose faith in Mr Blair, they merely conclude that all politicians are the same. So why not stick with this lot?
In view of that, the Tory position is almost hopeless — but not yet absolutely so.
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