The Tories are in civil war. If that doesn’t change, they’ll lose

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[/audioplayer]The general election is now Ed Miliband’s to lose. This is not a controversial statement: the polls say it, the bookmakers say it and in the last week several of David Cameron’s own ministers have come to believe it. The confidence that seemed to envelop the Conservative party before the summer recess has been replaced by a sense of doom. On its own, Douglas Carswell’s defection to Ukip would not be seen as a body blow — but it hammers home the fact that the right is fractured and many Tory voters made the jump long ago. A party that should be readying itself for victory is now preparing to tear itself apart in opposition.

The Scottish Tory leader, Ruth Davidson, this week felt that she may as well say in public what her colleagues are saying in private.