Is Ukip damaging the Tories in crucial marginal constituencies? As I wrote earlier this week, the next election is looking to be close, but there has been much speculation as to what extent Ukip will split the Tory vote. Could this unwittingly lead to a Labour victory? Lord Ashcroft has polled 40 of the most marginal Conservative seats (32 Labour targets and 8 Lib Dem) for the third time since the last election to try and answer that question.
From today’s snapshot, the answer is that Ukip pose a great electoral threat to the Tories. In the Conservative/Labour marginals, their vote share has jumped from 3 to 11 per cent since the 2010 election, while the Tories have dropped ten points:
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In Lib Dem/Conservative marginals, Ukip’s vote share has increased the same amount from 4 to 12 per cent, while the Tories have dropped by nine:
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