The Tories are doing worse than feared

These local elections – last fought at the height of the vaccine bounce of 2021 – were always going to be tough for the Conservatives. But the evidence thus far suggests the party has done worse than most initially feared. At 1:30 p.m, Tory losses were running at 44 per cent of total contests, according to YouGov’s Dylan Difford. That’s worse than the equivalent 38 per cent figure for the Tories in 1971, the most dire set of local election results for a party on record. For Kemi Badenoch, who became leader six months ago today, it could spell trouble.

There are many more contests to declare, of course, but that figure is the kind of ballpark which Badenoch is now in. There are precious few rays of light for the Tories. In Cambridgeshire, Paul Bristow’s hard work looks set to be rewarded later today in the mayoral race there.