James Forsyth James Forsyth

The Tories are coming to believe in David Cameron’s election hunch

But they won't know the truth until it's too late

issue 14 February 2015

‘You did this,’ David Cameron repeatedly declared to Tory donors as he reeled off a list of the government’s achievements at the Black and White ball on Monday night. Three months before the general election, the atmosphere at this lavish fundraiser at the Grosvenor House Hotel was self-congratulatory and more upbeat than perhaps it should have been, considering the polls. As guests made ever larger bids in the fundraising auction, the mood was one of confidence that the Tories would be in office again after May. By the end of the evening, there was heady talk of a Tory majority.

But it is not the donor class who will determine whether the Tories have the seats to govern alone. Rather, it is lower middle-class and skilled working-class voters, the so-called C1s and C2s, and especially those in the marginals of the West Midlands and the north west.

The last time the Tories passed the magical 326-seat mark, 23 years ago, John Major won a majority of lower middle-class votes.

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