On Monday night the Conservatives announced the rules of the party’s leadership contest. The reaction in Labour circles was incredulity that their run of good luck has not yet ended. ‘A three-month contest?’ asked one amazed party figure. Are there any candidates who Keir Starmer’s team fears? ‘I doubt the next Tory prime minister is in this parliamentary party,’ replied a senior Labour politician.
The decision to delay picking a new leader until November means Starmer’s government will be, in effect, unopposed as it holds its party conference and then its first Budget. The Tories will be a danger only to each other. Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt will go through the motions of opposition, but neither will pack much punch, given that they’ll soon be on the backbenches.
The lengthy schedule is designed to allow time to heal old wounds and avoid rushing into a decision MPs later regret. ‘The idea of having two leaders by the next election will just underline our reputation for deranged regicide,’ says one probable candidate. ‘We need to stop the spasms.’ But a prolonged contest risks months of civil war. Done badly, it could reinforce the idea that the Tories are more concerned with navel-gazing and in-fighting than listening to voters.
The new timetable, asserted by backbenchers against the advice of Sunak’s allies and Tory board members, means the result will be announced three days before the US election. ‘It’s the moment we want maximum publicity,’ says one MP, ‘but Trump will blow us out the water.’ Leadership hopefuls face a summer touring Conservative associations rather than sunnier climes.
Officially, candidate teams have made a ‘gentleman’s agreement’ for a non-aggression pact.
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