The threat to the Egyptian revolution

The Egyptian revolution may be in for its greatest challenge yet. Last weekend saw clashes between different groups of protesters, as one group sought to march on the Supreme Military Council. Now Salafists have promised to occupy Tahrir Square on Friday, seeking to turf out the broad-based group of revolutionaries that have occupied the square for a number of weeks. Many people fear a bloodbath.

The military, meanwhile, is benefitting from a fracturing of the revolution. Some even see an explicit (if short-term) agreement between the military and the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafists which will allow the military to push against the liberal Tahrir Square activists. If the Salafists put 100,000 on the square the military can claim an equivalence between the two sets of protesting groups and be seen to rule fairly. Essam El-Erian, Vice-Secretary General of the Muslim Brotherhood and a key member of the brethren’s new party (pictured above), denies a formal pact but talks about a “common vision” between the military and the Brotherhood.

Examples of this common vision abound. A recent one is the military’s ruling that the electoral system will be mixed, based on party lists and independent candidate names. This will benefit the brotherhood who have forged another unlikely alliance with the liberal Wafd Party and will stand on a joint list, which will likely capture a large number of seats.

Speaking to people here in Cairo it is clear that the activists are torn about what to do, whether to fight on or leave Tahrir Square before they feel their demands are met. What is clear is that the revolution is entering its most difficult phase. Thankfully, people note, Ramadan is around the corner and will halt the contest for a while. But it won’t remove it.