The third wave: it’s here – but it shouldn’t delay our reopening

Lockdowns cannot kill off a virus — they just delay the spread. There was always going to be a new wave of infections as Boris Johnson phased out restrictions. The question was how big it would be and how much protection the vaccines would provide. Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, summed up the case for optimism a few months ago, saying that any ‘new surges will meet a wall of vaccinated people’. His theory is now being tested: the fast-spreading Indian (Delta) variant is making its way through the most vaccinated country in Europe. What to do? And how worried should we be?

Since the pandemic began, I have been trying to answer such questions. I’m a professor of risk management at the University of Bristol, not an epidemiologist. Using mathematical principles I have been able to estimate the trajectory of Covid, with results regularly published on The Spectator website.