The tension’s rising inside the coalition

Talking to a Downing Street adviser earlier this week, I was struck when they observed that a ‘2014 election wouldn’t be too bad really. David would have done his best, Nick would have done his best. But they just couldn’t make it work anymore.’
 
The Tories have spent some time recently contemplating the possibility that the coalition might not run for the full length of the parliament. At a recent Chequers away day, the prospect of the Liberal Democrats walking out in 2014 was openly discussed.
 
That this possibility is even being talked about is revealing of the mood inside the coalition, which is the subject of my piece in the magazine this week. Things are becoming increasingly tense. Both sides aren’t quite sure what the other is going to do next, hence the jumpiness yesterday after Nick Robinson’s report that the Liberal Democrats might pull their support for the NHS bill.
 
What should worry the coalition is that there are a whole host of issues coming up that are going to put pressure on it, most notably House of Lords reform. Tory backbenchers are determined to stop this bill getting through the House of Commons. There are, I understand, already more than 81 MPs prepared to vote against it. This rebellion will not be made up of just the usual suspects; I’ve spoken to several MPs with pristine voting records who are prepared to defy the whip on this issue.
 
The danger for the coalition is that the Liberal Democrats are indicating that they think Cameron is obligated to get his MPs to support this bill. Having got their MPs to vote for tuition fees and the like, they are unsympathetic to the argument that Tory MPs just won’t wear a second chamber elected by PR.
 
I was told that if the bill doesn’t make it through the Commons it will be the result of ‘bad leadership or bad faith’ on Cameron’s part. Either of which, they say, would put the coalition in deep water.