For all the alarm about the instability of German politics, the results of this month’s federal election campaign seem – on the surface – largely baked in. The conservative CDU party, led by the bullish Friedrich Merz, is expected to win, with approximately 30 per cent of the vote. The far-right Elon Musk-loving Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is predicted to come second with around 21 per cent.
But dive deeper, and the polls show that German politics is still very much in flux. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD party is fighting for third place with the Greens. And there are three parties which may well fail to meet the 5 per cent threshold needed to enter the Bundestag. Even small changes in the popular vote could end up defining the governing coalition Friedrich Merz – pipped to become the next chancellor – is able to cobble together in the ensuing months.
The gradual decline in the BSW’s polling numbers began after the American election result
One of the three parties struggling to reach the 5 per cent threshold is the far-left Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) founded just 13 months ago by Sahra Wagenknecht, a defector from the Left party.
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