The statistic that should terrify Tory HQ

The tightening looks on. On Tuesday, my polling firm JL Partners published its first campaign poll showing a 12-point Labour lead, down from 15 points at the start of May and 18 points in April. Our data scientist, Callum Hunter, has written for The Spectator on why we are confident our methodology is the right one. We will need to see in our next poll whether the trend continues or stalls.

But there are reasons in the data to believe the Tories have more support to pick up. Reform is still on 12 per cent, and around four in ten (37 per cent) say they would consider voting for the Conservatives. Sunak has gradually climbed vis-à-vis Starmer with over-65s to a 23-point lead and is drawing closer with men (Labour currently has a 5-point lead): both groups that are more likely to consist of Reform voters.