Today’s ComRes poll, the weekend one by ICM and reports from the ground have persuaded most of us that the Tories are going to win Crewe and Nantwich. That alone is a sign of how fast events have moved in recent weeks. Just before the local and London elections, the consensus on Coffee House was that there “a very small chance of a Tory victory”.
If Labour do lose, the margin of defeat will be key to Brown’s prospects. A Labour loss by up to four points has already been factored into the Brown share price. So, it would probably not change that much though it would lead to a few more people putting their heads above the parapet.
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