Today’s ComRes poll, the weekend one by ICM and reports from the ground have persuaded most of us that the Tories are going to win Crewe and Nantwich. That alone is a sign of how fast events have moved in recent weeks. Just before the local and London elections, the consensus on Coffee House was that there “a very small chance of a Tory victory”.
If Labour do lose, the margin of defeat will be key to Brown’s prospects. A Labour loss by up to four points has already been factored into the Brown share price. So, it would probably not change that much though it would lead to a few more people putting their heads above the parapet. Anything above that and things get interesting. A four to eight point defeat would see a slew of people coming forward with their solutions to save Labour. If Crewe turns into a real thumping with the Tories winning by eight points or more, then talk of a leadership challenge to Brown will not seem as far-fetched as it does today. If the Tory margin extends into double digits, then there is a real chance that someone might be prepared to risk challenging Brown and that people close to him would be prepared to tell him that the game is up, one person who has been in the Brown inner circle since the start is said to be ready to tell the PM he has to step down for the good of the partyin these circumstances. The consolation for Brown is that if Labour does hold Crewe then he’ll have an opportunity to carve out a comeback narrative for himself.
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