The scale of the government’s defeat on Mrs May’s deal is, as everyone keeps saying, amazing — yet also not. Mrs May had been told again and again by Tory MPs who were not natural rebels that they could not accept her plan, partly because of the money, but chiefly because of the backstop trap. She just did not seem to take it in. When 117 of her party voted no confidence in her a month ago, she still did not pick up the message, but instead turned to trade union leaders, Labour MPs and potential Remainer rebels to make conciliatory noises on the other side of the argument. So 118 Tories quite logically voted against her solution in parliament on Tuesday night. The most significant new entrant in the ‘No’ lobby was Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 Committee. He has until now combined strong support for Brexit with emphasis on the need to seek out compromise. He tried, but he just could not see how, if Brexiteers conceded the backstop, Britain could ever actually leave. If the most important tribal elder feels disdained by the Prime Minister, it is certain that scores of lesser beings will feel even sorer.
Mr Speaker Bercow, following his unvarying rule of trying to do down the government, refused to call the amendment moved by Andrew Murrison which would have allowed MPs to vote for a legally binding codicil to end the backstop on 31 December 2021. So we were denied the knowledge of how many MPs would support the government on such terms. But the scale of the defeat was caused by the backstop, which may make the EU reflect. It reminds people of the fact that the backstop could, in reality, be sorted out bilaterally between Britain and Ireland if only the EU would allow it.
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