The greatest danger to the current government is the state of the Union, I say in this week’s edition of the magazine. Prime Ministers can survive many things but not the break up of the country they lead.
Number 10’s position is that there won’t accept a Scottish independence referendum in this Parliament. Given that no legal referendum can take place without Westminster’s consent, this means there won’t be one. But this position will come under huge pressure if the SNP win an outright majority on a pro-IndyRef2 platform in next year’s Holyrood elections.
The next skirmish between Westminster and Holyrood will be over the internal market bill. The SNP will claim that the UK government is attempting a power grab; they know that if they can make it Nicola’s government versus Boris’s they’ll win that argument in Scotland’s court of public opinion.
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