The Saudis are playing a clever game with oil supplies. Here’s how to understand it

As oil prices continue to plummet, the rather sterile debate over Saudi intentions drags on. Some believe the Saudis are locked into a secret conspiracy with Washington to stiff Russia and Iran. Others prefer to take the Saudi oil minister at his word and believe that it’s all about market share.

The truth is that the debate is founded on a false dichotomy: the Saudis are doing both things at once, and several other things as well.

The best way to understand this is to try to step into the shoes (or sandals, rather) of a senior member of the al-Saud family. Your neighbourhood is convulsed in war and revolution, and you have seen apparently stable regimes in Tunisia and Egypt swept away, while your own vassal state of Bahrain is on the verge of civil war. Syria has fallen into a free-for-all that has no good outcome – either your enemy Assad prevails, or your enemy Isis prevails.