The rules of Putin’s game

What does Putin want? It’s more straightforward than you might think: usually the answer is ‘what he says’. It’s worth remembering this when thinking about what Putin had to say in his latest state of the nation address this week, in which he warned other countries against crossing a ‘red line’ with Russia.

There is, of course, a huge difference between the tactical and the strategic. All politicians have a tendency to economise with the truth, and at times it can feel that the Kremlin has taken this to the level of an art form.

Remember those ‘little green men’ taking Crimea? Putin initially denied any responsibility, even suggested they might have bought their up-to-the-minute kit from army surplus shops, before later comfortably acknowledging them as Russian special forces.

But in terms of the big picture, Putin has often been strikingly straightforward. We just often don’t want to, or let ourselves, believe him. Or, just as problematic, we too often refuse to believe that he believes what he says he believes.