The revolution remains on track

The Egyptian revolution has pulled itself back from the brink in a quite an extraordinary way. Everyone feared a clash in Tahrir Square today but, so far, a deal struck between the Muslim Brotherhood, the Salafists, the pro-democracy activists and the military is holding. Tahrir Square is teeming with white-clad Hajis. But everything is calm.

The military gave into to a number of key demands from the protesters, including making some changes in the newly-promulgated electoral law. The Muslim Brotherhood feared being blamed by the military for a confrontation and being seen as too close to the Salafists. And the Facebook liberals wanted to keep the revolution united for now.

It is this to scrape out unity from disunity which has kept Egypt stable until now, not the fact that the military is somehow in complete control (which they are not). In today’s Egypt everyone is weak: the military is not like Turkey’s army; the Muslim Brotherhood know they have overplayed their strong hand; and the liberals are disunited. But this collective weakness is also fuelling everyone’s will to compromise.

After today Ramadan begins, and then the electoral process. It is hard to see any other outcome than the Muslim Brotherhood-led alliance with Wafd winning a majority, while a few liberal parties make it into parliament. Then a period of politicking will follow, especially as the 0.5 per cent threshold will create quite a fissiparous body. As a new constitution-drafting committee will have to be created to determine the parliament’s powers, the new legislature will have little to do by way of real work. Posturing will be the key activity. After a constitution has been written, presidential elections can be expected in spring next year.

Though the mood in the West is one of pessimism, and in Egypt one of fragmentation, there is no cause to despair. The military has made mistakes and committed human rights violations. But none of the mistakes have been fatal. The brethren are a fact of Egyptian life from now on, but so is debate and democracy. And as Egypt faces a massive economic challenge, the Muslim Brotherhood will have to deliver.