The Red Wall poll which suggests it might be curtains for Boris Johnson

Can Boris recover from the storm of partygate? The Prime Minister has pinned his hopes on being exonerated – or at least not entirely condemned – by Sue Gray in her investigation into Downing Street festivities during the pandemic. And yet, whatever she says, the writing might already be on the Red Wall for Boris. 

Support for the Prime Minister has collapsed in those constituencies which handed Boris his 80-seat majority in the 2019 election, according to new polling. Labour now enjoys an 11-point advantage over the Tories in the Red Wall.  Crucially for the PM, the main reason given for many voters in turning their backs on the Conservatives are ongoing revelations about partygate. The poll of 518 people, conducted by J.L. Partners, shows that if a snap election were to be held now, the Tories would cling on to only three of the 54 seats they seized from Labour: Dudley North, Bassetlaw and Great Grimsby.

The numbers make for dire reading for the PM – and could be a further call to action for wavering Red Wall Tory MPs who are terrified their stay in parliament will be short-lived if a change of leader is not imminent.