The Rebels and Government Agree: There Will Be An EU Referendum.

In principle, I agree with Fraser’s admirable post previewing Monday’s debate (summarised excellently by ConservativeHome here) on an EU-referendum but I suspect that wily old Blairite John Rentoul is right to argue that there was no way the government could wash its hands of the affair since, whatever it chose to do, The headlines would be about a divided Tory party, come what may. Which is reasonable enough since the Tory party is divided. Granted, the primary division is between the Get Out Now team and the Renegotiate Everything team but the point remains: this has been a blunder.

The government has mishandled this affair and been embarrassed by its own backbenchers. Nearly half the non-payroll Tory vote declined to back the Prime Minister yesterday. In part this is a sensible reflection upon the seriousness of Cameron’s pledge to “renegotiate” Britain’s relationship with Brussels. Then again, the Prime Minister may appreciate the limits of such an approach and how difficult it will be to renegotiate anything in ways that satisfy the party’s right-wing.