Straight after the government’s epic defeat in the House of Commons on Tuesday night, the Chancellor, Philip Hammond, the Business Secretary, Greg Clark, and the Brexit Secretary, Steve Barclay, held a conference call with business leaders to try to reassure them. The principal worry was about ‘no deal’. The Chancellor’s message of comfort was revealing of where power has shifted to. He emphasised how backbenchers are manoeuvring to stop no deal. In other words, they needn’t take his word that it wasn’t going to happen; they should take parliament’s. It was an admission that the government is no longer in control of Brexit.
Further evidence of this power shift came from Clark, who said the scale of the defeat and the need to reach out to parliament meant that the UK would now end up negotiating a deal that was closer to the EU. Unsurprisingly, given his historic opposition to Brexit, Clark sounded quite upbeat about this prospect. Indeed, those in the cabinet who have always wanted a softer Brexit see an opportunity in this defeat. They think that ideas they argued unsuccessfully for in cabinet, such as a customs union, are now back on the table.
These ministers who want a softer Brexit have also been helped by the missteps of their main internal foes, the Tory MPs of the European Research Group. Their shambolic attempt to unseat Theresa May before Christmas has won her a year’s grace from any challenge to her leadership of the party. This has put her in a unique constitutional position: she’s a Prime Minister who can be removed by parliament, but not by her party.
As a result, May knows that the greatest threat to her survival is not watering down Brexit — parliament would be happy with that — but if she is seen to be embracing no deal.
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