Nicola Sturgeon, who claimed this week that ‘Scotland is rich enough, strong enough and big enough’ to take its place ‘among the proud, independent nations of the world’, is a slippery fish. She claims the case for Scottish independence will be strengthened by the UK’s departure from the European Union and yet she campaigned for Remain during the referendum and has done what she can to obstruct Brexit since. For instance, the 35 SNP MPs voted against Theresa May’s withdrawal bill three times. If they’d voted for it on the third occasion, it would have passed.
Does Sturgeon feel obliged to oppose Brexit because she’s convinced it will eventually happen and when it does she wants to be able to claim it’s a union-ending catastrophe she tried to prevent? That’s a slightly odd position for her to take, given that ending the union is her number one priority. I suspect she’d prefer the UK to be in the EU when the next Scottish independence referendum takes place — assuming there’ll be another — because she recognises that leaving will actually weaken the SNP’s case.
The critical thing to bear in mind is that if the SNP wins an indy ref after we’ve left, Scotland will have to apply for membership of the EU. In 2014, Alex Salmond claimed that if Scotland voted ‘Yes’, it could remain in the EU. And one reason he made that argument is that he recognised the weakness of the nationhood case if a ‘Yes’ vote meant leaving the EU as well. Why? In part because there’s a risk Spain might veto any application by Scotland to rejoin, as it wants to discourage Catalans from agitating for independence.
If an independent Scotland is un-able to join the EU, that would put the Scottish government in a difficult spot, given the country’s sizable annual deficit.
Comments
Join the debate for just £1 a month
Be part of the conversation with other Spectator readers by getting your first three months for £3.
UNLOCK ACCESS Just £1 a monthAlready a subscriber? Log in