No nation in history is known to have emerged from the grip of long-term low birth rates. This sobering reality should be somewhat concerning, given that 70 per cent of the world’s people now live in countries that are below the replacement-level tipping point – countries where, on average, women have fewer than two surviving children. More worrying still, this crisis has no known solution, countless governmental incentives having failed to raise birth rates or having had only a short-lived impact. Yet, after eight years researching this phenomenon and producing the documentary Birthgap – Childless World, I am left with a hint of optimism for the next generation.
In the UK last year, 900,000 adults celebrated their 50th birthday, while only 700,000 births were recorded – a 23 per cent deficit or ‘birthgap’. France has a similar figure of 24 per cent, putting these nations at the better end of the scale. Germany’s is 35 per cent, meaning that for every three future retirees, there will be only two new-hires available to enter the workforce. But it gets worse: Spain and Japan both have a staggering 55 per cent birthgap, with less than one available new-hire for every two future retirees. Italy has just been confirmed as having the fewest workers aged under 35 in Europe compared to its total population – its birthgap has now reached 58 per cent. And even they are outdone by South Korea, where there’s a frightening 71 per cent birthgap – i.e. one new-hire for every three future retirees. The US has also caught onto the trend, with a widening 15 per cent birthgap overall, and New England leading the way with 29 per cent fewer newborns than 50-year-olds.
Between 93 per cent and 96 per cent of women plan to become mothers – many more than actually achieve it
Birthgaps are significant socially and economically.
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