The questions we must ask about the Covid vaccine

After a difficult nine months, we are naturally all sick of lockdowns and other Covid restrictions. Everyone misses parts of their pre-coronavirus lives, from seeing friends and family, to pubs and restaurants, to the theatre and concerts and, yes, even our workplaces. It was therefore no surprise that this week’s news of a vaccine breakthrough was widely applauded. It is human nature, after all, to cling on to things that give us hope. Hope that was encouraged by leading scientists such as Sir John Bell. After the Pfizer news broke, the Oxford professor was asked on BBC radio whether we would be returning to normal by spring. His response? ‘Yes, yes, yes.’ This was a When Harry Met Sally moment that proved to be music to the ears of millions of Britons.

However, as a microbiologist who has worked on vaccine discovery, I struggle to see how, despite this very welcome leap, we can possibly be back to normal by spring.

For starters, what quantity of vaccine is needed to return life to normal? Well, ‘we don’t know’, according to Matt Hancock. He is right to be cautious, because we still don’t know how effective the vaccine will be for its initial target demographic: care-home residents and staff. All we know so far is that it can protect some people for seven days after the second ‘shot’. There is no evidence yet of long-term immunity.

It is unlikely to fall at the safety hurdle, but there are major questions over how it will be delivered. We need to be ready for the very real possibility that it could throw up surprises, such as how it might be tolerated by the elderly. Because this particular type of vaccine (of which we know relatively little) has never been licensed before, we cannot simply assume it will be ready to be rolled out in a matter of weeks, as is being breathlessly reported in much of the media.