The question that no-deal Brexiteers must answer

The fact that the Confederation of British Industry is directly intervening in the Conservative Party leadership contest – to warn against a no-deal Brexit – should be remarkable, not least for what it says about how some business leaders now doubt the Conservative party’s instincts and sympathies.

The fact that this isn’t bigger news says a lot about recent politics, including how little force such warnings have for many people. The concept of ‘Project Fear’ is powerful and convinces many to discount warnings like today’s as mere scaremongering and shroud-waving. To a lot of people, no deal holds no fear and should be positively embraced. A lot of those people have a vote on who becomes our next Prime Minister.

I am very much not relaxed about no deal. I think it would be a grave economic error. But what if I am wrong? What if an awful lot of economists, bankers, executives, officials and politicians are all wrong? It’s always good to consider the contrary case, after all.