Is Rishi Sunak a ‘liar’? That was the powerful and rather incredible word used by Keir Starmer multiple times in Wednesday night’s debate – with Starmer interrupting the prime minister’s closing statement, no less – after Sunak used the Tory calculation that Labour would raise the average tax bill by £2,000.
‘Lies, liar’ Starmer pressed. It sounded like something being picked up on a hot mic off stage. But it was the Labour leader, who was visibly furious at the start of his closing statement. ‘That was a lie, and he’s been told not to repeat that lie, and he’s just done it,’ was how Starmer’s remarks started, before he went into his pitch.
The problem for Starmer and his party is that they have played a very similar numbers game, just with different calculations
There is no doubt the £2,000 figure is dubious. As I noted at the time, there was no possible way for the Tories to calculate that figure without knowing Labour’s full set of plans for governing. Fraser Nelson broke down the dodgy calculations, noting that if Sunak applied the methodology to his own plans, the average tax bill would rise by £3,000 – not exactly the narrative the Tories are trying to craft.
So is Sunak a ‘liar’? The problem for Starmer and his party is that they have played a very similar numbers game, just with different calculations. The accusation made by Labour that the average mortgage would rise by a staggering £4,800 under another Tory government was completely dismantled by Julian Jessop here. The assumptions about interest rates rising are based on scenarios precisely no one thinks is going to happen. Moreover, Labour have been insisting long before the election that long-term ambitions of this government are ‘unfunded spending cuts’, despite no promise to deliver them being made.
Perhaps the biggest undermining factor for Starmer is that he played that card this very evening. The mention of National Insurance by Sunak – which the Tories have steadily started to cut in its last few fiscal statements – led Starmer to accuse Sunak of announcing a £46 billion cut. Would Sunak sacrifice the NHS to deliver it, the Labour leader asked?
That number – £46 billion – is the estimated cost were a government to abolish employee National Insurance outright: something the Conservatives say they would like to work towards, but have by no means promised in their next manifesto. Rather, they have pledged for continued cuts to NI – a reduction of another 3p in total by 2027.
So whatever label is stuck to the Tories, it seems to apply to Labour just the same. Many will debate if these are ‘lies’, simply tools of political campaigning, or something in-between. Regardless, the Tories and Labour have played the dodgy numbers game in this election cycle. Both parties took liberties with the data – and neither seems to regret having done so.
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