The problem with Macron’s vision for Europe

The Ukraine crisis has transformed international affairs, forcing countries the world over to rethink their alliances and interests. New patterns are forming that will probably stay in place for many years – and one outcome is that global deals are being seen as more effective than regional ones. Sweden and Finland look set to join Nato, and Britain has agreed a defence deal with Japan.

In theory, EU countries are required to come to the help of any member that is attacked, but Sweden and Finland feel that only Nato membership (which offers a place under America’s nuclear umbrella) can afford them true protection. As they wait for the applications to go through, they have signed a defence deal with Britain which promises them interim protection.

All these developments make Emmanuel Macron nervous. He is still pursuing his own vision of a Europe that can defend itself without the help of outsiders (or Nato). To this end, he has proposed a new ‘European political community’ – a wider, looser organisation which could include countries from the United Kingdom to Ukraine, allowing them to take part in grand political schemes for the European continent without having to go along with the rest of the EU’s aims. This would sit alongside Macron’s idea of an EU co-ordinating the rearming of Europe, with the aim of moving away from Nato and reducing dependence on Washington.

Superficially, Macron’s idea has its attractions. Had this ‘country club’ membership been on offer when David Cameron was renegotiating with the EU, he would have taken it and won the referendum. The EU would never have lost Britain’s diplomatic heft. Much as the Remain campaign tried to claim otherwise, the sovereignty argument was central to the referendum result.