Susanne Mundschenk Susanne Mundschenk

The problem with euro-dollar parity

Europe is facing a potential recession, rising inflation and now a depreciating currency

The euro is nearly level with the dollar. It should not matter in theory, because of the relatively low share of the US in EU trade. But it does in practice.

Some predict that the euro will fall below parity. There is a straightforward explanation for this: the war in Ukraine and unpredictable Russian gas supplies to Europe make the dollar a safe haven for investors. On top of this, US interest rates offer a higher return on investment. But it is not only the dollar. Looking at the broader picture, the European Central Bank’s measure of the euro’s real effective exchange rate against 42 partner countries confirms this trend towards a new historic low:

really bad news comes from the combination of the euro’s falling value, the energy crisis, and the return of inflation. Global energy commodities are denominated in dollars.

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