Cans kicked down the road, last–minute concessions made, the process kept on track — just. This is how many people expected the Brexit negotiations between the United Kingdom and the European Union to go. But that is just a description of the situation at Westminster.
We still don’t know whether the government has the votes in the Commons to take Britain out of the customs union. Theresa May avoided a rebellion on the issue this week by, essentially, promising the rebels they would have the chance to vote on this before the summer is out; the chief whip has guaranteed to them that the Trade Bill will return to the Commons before the summer recess. But, as May herself recently acknowledged to the Brexit inner cabinet, the EU won’t engage seriously with any of the UK’s customs proposals until it sees that the government can carry the Commons on this.
Optimists in government hope that something might turn up which will allow them to win on this issue. They think that the government having a position on what kind of customs arrangements it wants, which it finally should do by then, might sway a few MPs. They also suggest that if the June summit sees agreement on a UK-wide ‘backstop’, the government might just have enough momentum to get over the line on this.
As May said to the Brexit inner cabinet, they ‘all knew that the EU’s preference was for the UK to stay in the customs union’. One doesn’t have to be a conspiracy theorist to wonder whether the EU will want to do anything at the June summit that would help the government win a customs union vote.
The other parliamentary event that will have been noted in Brussels this week is the shenanigans over the Lords ‘meaningful vote’ amendment.
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