The same, but completely different. That’s the electoral paradox that emerges from a
couple of opinion polls on the Oldham East & Saddleworth by-election this morning. The same, because both
the Lord Ashcroft survey for the Sunday Telegraph and the ICM survey for the Mail on Sunday produce the same result as in the general election: Labour first, the Lib Dems second and the Tories in
third. Completely different, because this is no longer the achingly close contest that it was back in May.
Both polls have Labour soaring 17 percentage points above the yellow bird of liberty.
Of course, the polls aren’t always right. Yet these latest will surely furrow some brows in Coalitionville. While neither forecast the nightmare scenario for Nick Clegg – a third-placed finish for the Lib Dems – a hefty Labour lead would still provoke a similar sort of backlash.
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