The poll that could mean the end for Nigel Farage

Nigel Farage’s career is on the brink. Aside from his solid performance in the TV debate last week, the Ukip leader isn’t focusing on the party’s national standing. All that matters to Farage now is South Thanet and making sure he is elected as the constituency’s first Ukip MP. But the seat is not a sure win and fears have been spreading throughout the party about what would happen if he fails to be elected.

These fears will only be exacerbated by today’s Mail on Sunday splash, which reports that a ‘Ukip-commissioned poll…shows that Farage has fallen behind his Tory opponent in the Kent seat he is contesting. And he is in danger of finishing third, with Labour catching up fast.’ But the polling numbers to back up that statement are not entirely straight forward. I have seen the detailed breakdown of the poll, conducted by ComRes, and the headline figures show a rather different picture: in South Thanet, the Conservatives are on 31 per cent, Ukip on 30, Labour on 29 and the Lib Dems trailing on five.