Conservatives have been returning to their Westminster offices this week to find the wind behind them. Something suddenly seems to be going right: there’s good news on the economy, jobs and immigration and Labour seems to be in gentle meltdown. The idea of an outright majority in a 2015 election suddenly seems a lot more plausible.
Which is why ministers and advisers are so dismayed at reports last week that David Cameron was planning for a second coalition after 2015. Just when a Tory election victory seemed possible, the Prime Minister has been mulling over a change in party rules so that MPs could vote on a new coalition agreement. Cameron was fortunate that his backbenchers were relaxing with their buckets and spades when the story broke: if parliament had been sitting it would have caused an almighty row in the party.
Cameron’s ministers, far from joining the Prime Minister in planning a second coalition, would much rather imagine how wonderful life could be without the Lib Dems. Take Chris Grayling, the Justice Secretary. For some time, he has been working on a detailed, true blue human rights policy to be unveiled in the coming weeks. Grayling is privately puzzled by Labour and Lib Dem willingness to sign in blood their support for the European Court of Human Rights given its huge unpopularity. He’d like to explain, before the election, how much better things could be without the Lib Dems — and that could include breaking free from Strasbourg. His Lib Dem justice minister, Lord McNally, is aware of this. The two have agreed to plough their own party furrows, while working together on the modest ECHR reforms secured by Ken Clarke last year.
Theresa May, who recently supplanted Boris Johnson as the bookmakers’ favourite to succeed Cameron, has her own plans.
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