The plot to stop Marine Le Pen could backfire badly

At first, French elites haughtily dismissed the Rassemblement National (RN) and its voters. Then they were in denial about its rise. Now they are scrambling to block its path to victory in 2027 by all manner of subterfuge.

Marine Le Pen, the leader of the RN and front-runner in the 2027 presidential election, will go on trial this October, with other RN party members, for the misuse of European parliamentary funds. Whereas members of Macron’s coalition were recently found guilty of similar misdemeanours, in the case of Le Pen the stakes are particularly high: a likely guilty verdict will see her declared ineligible for political office and thus eliminated from the presidential race.

To this day the elimination of political opponents and rivals through the weaponisation of judicial investigation has been a feature of every presidential election since Pompidou’s presidency in 1969. The most egregious example, the elimination from the 2017 presidential race of the front-runner François Fillon for being under investigation following allegations of embezzlement, still awaits an appeal decision.