There’s an intensity to politics this autumn. The government is churning out as many announcements in a week as it used to in a month. Ed Miliband’s staff are striding around the Palace of Westminster as if they have somewhere to be in hurry. The reason for this burst of activity is that all sides know that the next few months might well determine who wins the next election.
Between now and Christmas, we’ll find out if the British economy has been contracting for a year, or is in recovery. If it is the latter, Downing Street hopes that this will give momentum to its push for growth. This autumn also promises to be one of the few remaining productive phases of the coalition: once 2013 is upon us, speculation about Liberal Democrat leadership challenges and the end of the coalition will make it more difficult than ever to get things done. Finally, this autumn is the last chance to push for reforms that will make a difference by 2015.
The Tories in Downing Street seem in an especially driven mood. They are, broadly speaking, happy at how the reshuffle went even if staff diaries have been chock-a-block this week with meetings to soothe the disappointed. Oliver Letwin is said to be particularly pleased that he now has allies for his deregulation efforts and that his old Cambridge contemporary, the new Environment Secretary Owen Paterson, is pushing harder for growth in the rural economy than Caroline Spelman ever did.
No. 10 is confident that the economy will soon be, officially, in recovery. They reckon that this combined with various other initiatives they have planned will give them a way of winning back support both in the parliamentary party and the country.
The next few weeks will contain a string of economic announcements.
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