The people are making their choice on Cameron. So are Tory MPs

There’s an intensity to politics this autumn. The government is churning out as many announcements in a week as it used to in a month. Ed Miliband’s staff are striding around the Palace of Westminster as if they have somewhere to be in hurry. The reason for this burst of activity is that all sides know that the next few months might well determine who wins the next election.

Between now and Christmas, we’ll find out if the British economy has been contracting for a year, or is in recovery. If it is the latter, Downing Street hopes that this will give momentum to its push for growth. This autumn also promises to be one of the few remaining productive phases of the coalition: once 2013 is upon us, speculation about Liberal Democrat leadership challenges and the end of the coalition will make it more difficult than ever to get things done.