The Office for Budget Responsibility’s 126-page Fiscal Sustainability Report really oughtn’t make for electrifying reading. But it does. What Robert Chote and his gang of number-crunchers have done is to gaze into our fiscal abyss, and summon up forecasts so that the abyss can gaze back into us. I mean, look at the graph above. On the OBR’s account, our country’s debt burden could well rise from around 70 per cent of GDP now to over 100 per cent in 50 years time. It is a perturbing trajectory, to say the least.
But, before we go any further, we should slap all kinds of health warnings across this. Long-term forecasting is, by its very nature, an uncertain science — and there are plenty of uncertainties in the OBR’s work. Grand assumptions have been made about everything from the trend rate of growth to the level of government spending.
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