When the third national lockdown came to a vote in parliament last week, only 12 Conservative MPs voted against the measures. This was a far cry from the second lockdown – which saw a rebellion of over 50 – and the mood at that time. Back in November, members of the Covid Recovery Group – made up of Tory MPs sceptical of tighter restrictions – were warning that a third lockdown would see a rebellion in the three-figure mark.
So, what’s changed? Speak to former lockdown rebels and it’s a mix of factors that has provoked a rethink. The approval of several vaccines means that there is now a reasonable argument to be made that this will be the last national lockdown rather than one in a never-ending cycle. Second, the data. Where in the past many Tory MPs were sceptical of the data and how it was framed, the number of infections and the impact on hospitals is viewed as different this time around.
But the third reason – and the one that will have the biggest impact on UK politics – is a sense that the most important debate isn’t on lockdown anymore (which is viewed as temporary) but vaccines: how many need to be vaccinated before restrictions can not only be eased but ended altogether.
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