The next phase of the Ukraine war will be bloody

The war in Ukraine is about to enter an even deadlier stage, one in which both Kyiv and Moscow will be tempted to apply more and more military might that could even draw in outside powers.

The Battle for Donbas, with another battle raging for what is left of the city of Mariupol, will be a new hell that Europe has not seen since the second world war. It has the potential even to mutate into World War III unless the conflict is brought to a conclusion — and fast.

Why the war in Ukraine is shifting to these critical regions is simple to understand. First, Putin knows he has no chance now of conquering Kyiv or taking over the Ukrainian government unless he is willing to apply so much air, artillery and even weapons of mass destruction that Nato keeps applying more economic pressure with each bomb dropped.

Putin gambles that going after Donbas, which he already tried and failed to take in 2014, will be a much more realistic goal, easier to accomplish with shorter supply lines and logistics.