The myth of collective wisdom

After 250 years of American independence, a nation home to many of the smartest and most talented people in the world may have to choose as its leader one of two people, each of whom is in many ways worse than His late Majesty George III, the man whose role the entire system was designed to replace.

The absurdity emerges from the nature of the system – which, like many such systems, works very well right up to the point where it suddenly doesn’t. Faced with an unexpected combination of events, even good systems can produce an outcome far sillier than any sane individual would choose when acting alone.

I have spent the past 15 years studying behavioural economics, which seeks to uncover the origins and consequences of human ‘irrationality’. Yes, there are many cases in which better-informed individuals might make better decisions, but on the whole most people make a pretty good fist of their personal choices.