This morning’s so-called ‘React study’ — an attempt by Imperial College to estimate the prevalence of current Covid-19 infection in Britain — has aroused much interest thanks to its suggestion of a sharp fall in the R number. Its central estimate for R is 1.06, but it applies a range of between 0.74 to 1.46, with a 63 per cent chance that R is above the critical level of 1.
It was a rare piece of good news to lead BBC news bulletins — as well it might given that it was the previous report from the React study three weeks ago that led to the government introducing the rule of six.
It underlines just how unreliable much of the data on Covid-19 still is
But there are a couple of interesting details about the React study that have gone unreported. Firstly, its estimate of the number of people in England who are currently infected with Covid-19 is vastly higher than is suggested by official figures for confirmed cases.
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