The mean machine

Peter Oborne reveals that the Tories have a secret weapon — the Voter Vault — which has identified the 900,000 swing voters the party needs to capture at the next election

According to all objective criteria the Conservative party leadership ought to be very low in the water. The assassination of Iain Duncan Smith almost exactly 12 months ago has brought about numberless benefits: a new mood among fundraisers; the restoration of discipline and purpose in the parliamentary party; much higher morale on the ground. But it has had no effect on the polls. The Conservatives remain exactly where they were before, becalmed in the low thirties, seemingly heading for a third consecutive landslide defeat.

But a mood of optimism endures. Michael Howard, when he predicts victory, somehow conveys conviction. The Tory chairman Maurice Saatchi confidently forecasts a hung parliament. There is, of course, an element of perfunctory incantation in both cases — it is a ritual of democratic politics that even doomed leaders radiate optimism — but also an underlying confidence.