James Kanagasooriam James Kanagasooriam

The margin between a Tory landslide and defeat is tiny

In next week’s election, it feels like voters would elect a Conservative president and a centre-left parliament if they had the choice. Denied those options they are muddling their way to a conclusion. But what will they decide?

Firstly, it’s worth remembering that Corbynomics is popular. YouGov generically polled Labour policies and they were popular. But being likeable or popular is different to being credible or possible. Corbynomics has been partially neutralised by the Tories shifting sharply to the left on economics.

Secondly, Boris Johnson’s favourability ratings have endured against Corbyn in a way that Theresa May’s did not. Last week, we reached an interesting cross-over point where the Tory campaign is doing better versus Labour for the first time than when compared to its lead over Labour during the 2017 campaign.

That said Labour’s manifesto hasn’t lit the red touch paper as it did in 2017.

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