Rory Sutherland Rory Sutherland

The Mad Men theory of drunk decision-making

[Getty Images] 
issue 28 September 2024

In electing this government, we seem to have picked the worst of both worlds: higher taxation combined with austerity in the public finances. The one bonus I had hoped to see from a left-wing regime was a healthily indulgent approach to spending. Instead we get a Chancellor of the Exchequer who is a former Bank of England economist. Voting Labour and getting a neo-liberal Chancellor is like going on a Club 18-30 holiday and bringing your parents along. It defeats the purpose of the exercise.

Our education and political systems select for the ability to win arguments far more than for the ability to solve problems

In 2012 the Nobel Prize-winning economist Richard Thaler complained: ‘As a general rule, the United States government is run by lawyers who occasionally take advice from economists. Others interested in helping the lawyers out need not apply.’ Here we have a country that is literally run by a lawyer being advised by an economist. The effect of this un-holy alliance will be for government to continue in its present default-mode whereby its energies are devoted to the two things large institutions resort to when they run out of ideas: arse-covering (law) and penny-pinching (economics). Both approaches are like catnip to the bureaucratic mind, since they allow the pen-pusher to delegate every decision to a spreadsheet or an external legal opinion, hence avoiding subjective judgment, which may expose you to blame. Economics and law are two major enabling forces in allowing people to make a seemingly unassailable decision without actually deciding anything at all.

It is this unholy alliance, not migration, that has most contributed to the rise of ‘popularism’: a not unnatural aversion to having decisions about your life taken by people in thrall to mental models at several removes from reality. Migration is one of many crunch-points between common sense and bureaucracy, when people reasonably wonder why the Royal Navy is power-less in the face of six Albanians in a rubber boat.

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